Fri, 17 Sep 2021

CHICAGO, Oct. 17 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures rose higher in the past week due to a weaker U.S. dollar and massive inflow of speculative capital in the past six weeks, according to Chicago-based research company AgResource.

Spot CBOT corn traded above 4 dollars for the first time in years. Brazilian corn availability is in fast retreat while 2020 Ukrainian crop size drifting towards 30-32 million metric tons based on daily yield data. It is suggested that U.S. end stocks will struggle to fall below 2.0 billion bushels unless China imports more than 20 million metric tons. Potential new Chinese interest and possible La Nina-based drought in Argentina linger in the background, AgResource noted.

The dynamics of corn supply and demand have changed dramatically in the past 2 weeks. A lasting break is unlikely until 2021 North Hemisphere production potential is known.

U.S. wheat futures soared last week to reach a new 6-year high. The market has broken through major chart-based support at 6.10-6.15 dollars, with next resistance noted at 6.75 dollars. AgResource said that a more dynamic bull phase is in the offing if winter wheat fails to properly germinate in Southern Russia. Extreme drought is impacting 60-70 percent of Russia's winter wheat area currently.

The bigger risk for wheat is that Russian wheat exports face stricter export controls in 2021 if production fails to exceed 74 million metric tons.

Soybean futures consolidated early October gains. Support came from the record U.S. soybean export pace and strong cash basis. However, a late-week rally found profit-taking.

China export demand continues to dominate the headlines. South American weather and delayed Brazilian planting are also nudging early 2021 export demand back to the United States for February. Argentine soybean supply is large with Oct. 1 stocks estimated at 29 million metric tons, as against 24 million metric tons a year ago.

As ongoing Chinese demand and delayed South American seeding will underpin CBOT breaks, AgResource said it looks for support in November soybean futures to begin below 10.35 dollars.

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