Tue, 15 Jun 2021

New Delhi [India], May 15 (ANI): The Indian Meteorological Department on Saturday predicted light to moderate intensity rains over Haryana, Rajasthan and its adjoining areas in the next two hours.

"Light to moderate intensity rain with wind speed 20-40 kmph would occur over Viratnagar, Kotputly, Alwar, Jhunjunu, Pilani, Rajghar, Laxmangarh, Bayana (Rajasthan), Narnaul, Tizara, Mahendergarh (Haryana) and adjoining areas during next 2 hours", tweeted IMD.

"Mahendergarh (Haryana) and adjoining areas during next 2 hours", tweeted IMD.

Meanwhile, the advance of the southwest monsoon over Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season, informed a press release by IMD yesterday evening.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of - 4 days is used for this purpose.

The 6 Predictors used in the models are; i) Minimum Temperatures over North-west India, ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, iii) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over the southeast Indian Ocean, (v) upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and (vi) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance in north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around 22nd May.

At present, a Depression has formed over the Lakshadweep area and neighborhood. It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and reach the south Gujarat coast in the early hours of 18th May.

As a result, the cross-equatorial south westerlies have temporarily strengthened over the Arabian Sea. The cross-equatorial flow is very likely to strengthen and deepen over the Bay of Bengal from 20th May and a sustained rainfall activity is likely over the South Bay of Bengal and Andaman and Nicobar Islands from 21st May. Hence the monsoon advance over AndamanNicobar Islands is very likely around 21st May 2021.

However, the past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country. (ANI)

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